The Scottish Council Development and Industry Blueprint for Scotland executive summary splits its vision into a five year short term and long term decade.

Outward and Enterprising
In the short term of the next five years, SCDI envisages broadening the business base of Scottish exporters and establish a network of Scottish Trade Centres; managing public finances so net debt falls as a share of GDP while ensuring it supports capital spending, R&D and skills.

It urges the restoration of the strength, reputation and competitiveness of the financial sector and its support for higher business investment and manufacturing while strengthening Scottish Parliament's responsibility for tax and spending which promotes sustainable economic growth and increasing the skilled supply of people for the Scottish economy.

For the long term they envisage doubling the value of Scotland's exports, returning public spending in-line with GDP long term growth trend; more balanced and sustainable growth across businesss with manufacturing a stable or growing share of GDP, and support for new world-class financial services headquartered in Scotland. Priorities are to increase sustainable economic growth and supply of skills.

Assets maximised
To maximise on Scottish assets, offshore wind Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS), marine energy parks and on/offshore grids, with Scottish supply chains will be constructed. Complementary corporation tax on North Sea oil and gas is to phase out. Support is to be given for market led, roll out of high speed broadband with public funding for areas where the market will not deliver and establishing Scotland as a first location for green data centres builiding up its outsourcing excellence, supported by technology. Scottish international air route networks to include direct flights to China and India.

Over the decade, 2020 renewable energy, climate change and green economy/green collar jobs are the target. Scottish cities are to become low carbon with zones around renewable power stations, CCS infrastructure and water resources are to attract new industry to Scotland, which will be fully wired to high speed broadband, transforming business practices to reach leading productivity growth performance and create new 'distributed' cities in the Highland and Island and southern Scotland. Construction of a high speed rail is envisages in Scotland.

People power potential
As for 'people potential' an independent review of university and college funding will be undertaken to maintain international competitiveness and innovation schemes refocused to create a single Office of Higher Education Technology Transfer. This will ring-fence 0.5% of  budget to stimulate innovation across the economy and deliver a transformational skills system and prioritise places in STEM subjects.

Long term, more focus on centres of excellence, increase business R&D to at least a UK average of 1.08%  of GDP and maintain high employment revels, reducing economic inactivity by re/up skilling the workforce to delivers kills for priority industry.

Reaction
The SCDI has received "very positive feedback from across civic Scotland " writes Alf Young (left) in the Scotsman.  "However, to deliver a sustainable and aspirational environment that encourages and supports enterprise and growth, to deliver innovative and world-class delivery of public services, to deliver international success and create an inclusive and connected nation and regions, as the Blueprint advocates, will be even more challenging now that the full scale of the UK government's drive to fiscal consolidation has been revealed.

"We must all now become even more innovative in how we go about delivering a stronger more sustainable future," advises Young.

Can rebalancing find innovation magic?
In the NESTA report, the concept of a ‘rebalanced’ economy becomes
central to the debate of how UK can emerge from recession, generate sustainable growth. The report focuses on the balance between different sectors in the economy. This topical issue is in  the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which led many to question decades long financial services sector rise at  at the expense of manufacturing industries.

The debate is now underway between those who believe the UK needs a new balance between its different sectors, with a smaller role for finance and a greater one for manufacturing and technology, and those who believe that services, in particular financial and business services, wil provide the country’s bread and butter and its best recovery chances.

The debate has often taken place in the absence of evidence. Strongly held views on importance of manufacturing or on UK’s competitive position in financial services have played a more prominent role in the argument,  rather than rebalancing and actual scrutiny of what the different options mean for the UK’s economy.

NESTA attempts a more analytical approach to the debate.  It analyses the current and historical balance of the UK economy in comparison to other rich countries, highlighting the challenges of drawing firm inferences about the state of sectoral balance from a straightforward comparison with other countries.

The four scenario horsemen
The report sets out four possible scenarios for future growth, including a ‘business-asusual’ case, a broad-based manufacturing renaissance, a high-tech growth scenario, and a case in which businesses invest heavily in innovation across the economy. It applies these scenarios to a widely recognised economic model to identify what one would have to believe for the scenarios to be plausible.

The results show the shortcomings of the business-as-usual scenario: slow to generate jobs (employment growth not occuring until 2013) poor growth
in the UK’s regions and nations (employment in Wales is projected at an anaemic 0.1% per year over the decade, 0.2% per year in the North East).

The broadbased manufacturing renaissance, however, strains credibility. While manufacturing output is expected to grow in all scenarios, an increase
in the sector’s contribution to the economy by 3% from today’s levels by 2020 implies levels of manufacturing growth (around 6.2% per year) not seen since before 1945.

The other two scenarios, though ambitious, are both more plausible in terms of the factors required for them to occur. They would generate higher rates of growth outside London, a faster return to employment growth (by 2011 rather than 2013) and a very sound overall level of economic growth.

A further important implication of all four scenarios is that even in those where the manufacturing contribution to the economy grows, business services continue to be the largest contributor to UK economic growth, showing the centrality of services (including creative sectors such as software and advertising) even in a more manufacturing oriented economy.

Policy implications
Since both the high-tech scenario and wider innovation scenario have some uncertainties – neither is a sure thing – and in some senses complementary (creating the conditions for innovation across the economy will in itself benefit the growth of high-tech sectors and vice-versa), policy should be put in place
that works towards both of these goals.

This policy path is supported by analysis of the UK’s comparative advantage, as well as NESTA’s own research highlighting the vital link between innovation and growth. At the same time, policy has to take into account the
straitened state of public finances.

Accordingly, the recommendations in this report are focused on improving value for money, and do not require additional government spending. The report recommends that policy for growth should be focused on two ends: fostering an environment in which innovative firms can flourish; and making sure that the government actions support high-potential, high-tech sectors, wherever possible.

Government policy as it relates to high-tech sectors should concentrate on harnessing existing spending – for example through government procurement and university research and teaching – to meet the demands
of high-potential sectors, underpinned by a framework of taxation that encourages investment and enterprise and a financial regulation that ensures access to finance.

Encouraging innovation across the economy will require the government to engineer a business environment which encourages a diverse pool of ideas to emerge from universities and companies, promotes entrepreneurial risk-taking, fosters open, competitive markets, provides a supportive
financial architecture and a highly skilled workforce.

There are also measures that the government should seek to introduce now. In particular, government should pay special heed to the small minority of high-growth businesses that generate the bulk of job creation – and which NESTA research has shown to be disproportionately innovative.

Mainstream government support, such as Business Links, is not clearly targeted at this group. In an age of austerity, government should consider the
role that private sector-led programmes that incubate and support  high-potential businesses in particular can play.

The report also highlights the importance of access to finance; government policy here on banking competition and small business lending, combined with existing policies like the Innovation Investment Fund, can help provide the financial architecture that businesses need to innovate and thrive.

As part of its year-long work, the recently established Banking Commission should seek to examine how financial institutions in the UK provide debt and equity to innovative companies and options for enhancing this support.

These recommendations, and the questionof how to deliver investment in innovation and high-tech outlined in this report, will be the subject of further work by NESTA in the coming months, with a view to helping providean evidence-based framework for how the UK economy can return to growth.

Now, the quetion is can the Blueprint and the Balancing Act be put in place and synchronised quickly?