HEDGING THE SCOTTISH COASTLINE WITH TURBINES

The Crown Estate spatial modelling tool MaRS was used to create multi-factorial expressions of the technical opportunities and constraints on offshore wind development in Scottish waters, and of the constraints on consenting presented by themed groups of 2 factors. Themes reflect current commercial (industrial) activities such as fishing, aquaculture and offshore oil and gas, environmental factors such as designated Natural sites, and a broad field of “heritage” interests including recreational uses and archaeological potential, visual and landscape factors. These models have been combined and used to develop overall expressions of the relative degrees of constraint in the Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science report.

The sensitivity of the process was investigated through the creation of a series of combined models altering the relative influence of each the themes. Considerable similarities were found between the combined models, and the model that weights the three themes equally was taken forward and used to develop plan options for offshore wind within Scottish Territorial Waters. 

E1 Off the Firths of Forth and Tay             
NE1 In the inner Moray Firth 
NE2 south eastern part of Moray Firth 
NE3 Off east coast of Aberdeenshire 
N2-3 North of Orkney 
N4–6 West of Shetland 
N7 East of Shetland 
N8 North of Shetland 
NW7 North Minch 
NW4 South MInch 
W1-3 Sea of the Hebrides 
W4 South of Islay 
W5 South of Islay 
W6 West of Ayrshire 
SW3-6 Solway region

MaRS is the software tool, developed with potential uses to primarily analyse  and support the 9 profit oriented business sectors within The Crown Estate. Launched two year ago.

it was then believed it could  provide • Proactive proposal assessment? Assist with wider needs? • Marine planning? • Environmental protection? • Coastal?  • Onshore?

Its presentation paper noted that MaRS would benefit from • Affordable data • Standardised metadata • Clear update cycles • Transparent data licence conditions • Authoritative sources of data who can add expert knowledge and • Applications will always have specialist data requirements.

Accordingly additional considerations to the latest plan.

•  The analyses use the JNCC seabird at sea data set. It would be better to use the  comprehensive European Seabird at Sea (ESAS) data and to distinguish between species according to their sensitivity to wind farm developments. It should be noted that these data were not available in a suitable form at the time of the original MaRS modelling work undertaken by the consultants.
• The fish spawning and nursery ground data are now more than 10 years old and in the process of being revised.
• The fish (fisheries) value combines across all gears and all vessels. A better analysis could be developed using VMS data for >15m vessels, distinguishing between gear types (and perhaps species). There is a significant lack of detailed information on <15 m vessels, which are likely to be important in some of the proposed areas.
•  Some of the data layers used by the SG Consultants  (SME marketing and strategy experts oddly using the now banned lightbulb for its web graphic) in the MaRS models on the distribution of wildlife, such as seals, basking sharks, etc, although the best available, had been derived from non-systematic survey methods and may therefore have been biased by the distribution of observer effort.
•  All SACs and SPAs are treated equally, while the risk arising from wind farms will differ between species and habitats. A more risk-based approach could improve the targeting of the assessment. 

But as ForArgyll so succinctly defines it: 'We understand from the well informed Kintyre Offshore Wind Action Group (KOWAG) that: ‘…this scoping report is the outcome of a spatial analysis tool which modelled “constraints”. The impact on people was ironically not one of the constraints considered… unless they are dead and buried in shipwrecks at sea, in which case they become an archaeological constraint. Presumably the people-factor comes in when they do the regional locational guidance’.This will be the deskbound equivalent of ‘ light blue touch paper and retire.

The new areas Marine Energy Science  claims "could support a further 10GW of development and are in addition to plans already in place for 10GW of offshore wind around Scotland. The report is now be followed by more detailed Regional Locational Guidance to provide industry and its supply chain, with the best knowledge to locate their activities in Scotland.

"A new £5m offshore renewables R & D programme, using European Regional Development Funds, is also to be progressed by Scottish Enterprise which will help minimise costs and risks in the offshore environment by supporting R&D, prototype development, innovation and commercialisation activities involving small and medium sized enterprises."

Rural Affairs Secretary Richard Lochhead said: ‘The Scottish Government is working with public and private sector partners to support green energy developments and the re-industrialisation of Scotland’s communities.' So there is no move to develop existing rural communities, merely to re-industrialise them with visible industrial format.

The areas identified by Marine Scotland are mostly close inshore, shallow waters, suitable for existing technologies or cheaper to install. The environmental damage from hedging Scotland's coastline with turbines, many of which will have to fall idle for periods of time,  as increasingly violent weather and high winds prove that the still to be established Smart Grid, is unlikely to be offset by the technology being capable of handling either the random mass energy input or storing it.

Government notes "There are deepwater areas which could used for emerging offshore renewable energy technologies, such as floating technology." Already major industrial players have voted for this energy source with their wallets, but Scotland seems determined to install unstable, unreliable wind power first,  producing "a revised plan in 2013 to better understand the waters around Scotland and provide developers with the confidence to move to the next stage of project development (deep water wind or water power?) in Scottish waters.’

Ewing told the conference, "With an estimated 25% of Europe’s offshore wind resource, Scotland is the place to come and do business and reap the massive benefits of new offshore wind development and deployment.

"We have demonstrated our commitment with an ambitious but achievable target of the equivalent of 100% of Scotland’s electricity needs coming from renewables by 2020. By positioning Scotland as a world leader in low carbon activities, we are witnessing new investment and new jobs.

Offshore wind could support almost 50,000 direct and indirect jobs in Scotland by 2020, generating over £7bn for our economy, while there is already £300m  being invested in Scotland to develop the next generation offshore wind turbines.

Initial response
ForArgyll comments: "When you look at the Marine Scotland research report: Offshore Wind Energy in Scottish Waters the picture is close to unhinged. The entrance to the outer Firth of Clyde would be almost closed off by wind farms, both right inshore in Ayrshire and south Kintyre – and entrance to Campbeltown Loch would be what? A slalom?

Then there is an entire continuous swathe stretching from the north of Islay away to the northwest, blanketing Tiree and Barra. As the Trekkies sing: ‘It’s life Jim, but not as we know it’.
The entire west coast of Scotland, one of the world’s renowned sailing grounds – would be unrecognisable and, for sail, effectively unnavigable. Anyone calibrated the impact of wind turbines on passing sail boats?

The country is almost completely ringed with areas for inshore and offshore wind farms – to the point where what is happening is painfully clear.

The plans are being created by city-based consultants who have lost sight of the fact  that what they are looking at is more than a set of potential resources. It is a country with a very specific identity upon which unique lifestyles, cultures and that major industry of tourism depend.

This is no more than a computer game, or a version of ‘Risk’, which used to be Bill Gates’ favourite  – but we are not talking about a game – or are we? – but a country.

The west coast – a major feature and a unique Scottish selling point – and every aspect of life on and experience of the west coast and its islands, will be irrevocably changed by this Frankenstein desk bound madness.

Below: unlucky Figure 13.  The Combined Restriction model, gives equal emphasis to the environmental, industry and heritage themes, showing proposed strategic areas in  Scottish Territorial Waters (STW)  existing STW and Round 3 offshore wind sites, the 12 mile limit (boundary to STW) and the relative levels of constraint in waters of 0 – 60 metres depth.