Global semiconductor sales to 2012

Tuesday 16th November 2010
Courtesy: http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Memory-And-Foundry-Companies-Climb-In-2010-Semiconductor-Ranking/

Back in September iSuppli trimmed its 2010 semiconductor revenue forecasts from a 35.1% outlook to 32% thanks to consumer demand slowing and inventories rising. Now the Semiconductor Industry Association is looking towards 2012 while IC Insights ranks and places the players.

Global semiconductor sales now are expected to amount to $302bn in 2010, up from $228bn in 2009 says ISuppli. And despite the reduced outlook, 2010 still will be an impressive growth and record-setting revenue year for the  industry.

Revenue will rise by $73bn compared to 2009 and be almost $28bn higher than 2007, the previous last peak year for semiconductor revenue, according to iSuppli’s semiconductor industry analysis.

iSuppli expected then that revenue in the 4Q will decline by 0.3% compared to the 3Q, the first sequential decrease since the market collapse in the 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009.

Now the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) annual forecast of global semiconductor sales for 2010 through 2012, projects record sales of $300.5bn in 2010, an increase of 32.8%. The forecast implies sales growing by 6.0% in 2011, to $318.7bn, followed by a 3.4% increase to $329.7bn in 2012. Projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is estimated at 13.4% for the period 2009 through 2012.
 
“We experienced record sales this year due to strong global demand across a broad range of end markets,” said (right) SIA President Brian Toohey. “We expect more moderate growth through 2012 as the economy recovers and consumer confidence restores.”

Half of the projected top 20 chip suppliers are expected to outdo the overall semiconductor industry, which is anticipated to grow 31% this year, according to IC Insights Inc, setting overall growth slightly lower than the SIA.

Memory and Foundry companies rankings
(Left. Intel's Fab 68 Dalian, China)  All companies, except Sony, are expected to register strong double-digit growth rates in 2010 and only $50m in sales is forecast to separate the 4th and 5th place rankings this year (implying these places are up for grabs).

Of the big five memory suppliers ( Samsung, Toshiba, Hynix, Micron, and Elpida), all but Samsung are expected to gain at least one position (Elpida vaults four places to 11th place).

Samsung is not forecast to move up the ranks, but is likely to gain ground on Intel the number one supplier. In 2009, despite Intel's semiconductor sales being 52% larger than Samsung's, Intel's sales margin is forecast to shrink to only 23% this year!

The two largest foundries, TSMC and UMC, also expect to do very well in 2010. TSMC is forecast to move up two places in the ranks to 4th position. UMC is expected to jump five spots into 19th place!

If foundries were excluded from the top 20 ranking, MediaTek (2010 sales forecast to be $3,695m) and Marvell (2010 sales forecast to be $3,574m) would claim the 19th and 20th positions, respectively.

MediaTek, after growing by 22% in 2009 (while the total semiconductor industry declined 9%), is forecast to grow only 6% in 2010 (against total semiconductor market growth of 31%). Low growth rate this year is expected to drop its ranking from 17th in 2009 to 21st in 2010.

Renesas and NEC officially merged in April 1, 2010, but for ease of comparison, IC Insights combines the two companies' semiconductor sales for all of 2009 and 2010. The "new" Renesas is forecast to fall from 4th place in 2009 to 6th in 2010.

Out of the top 20 semiconductor suppliers, 10 companies  are expected to outperform the total semiconductor industry growth rate of 31% this year and 10 that will fall short of this. Of the top 10 performers, 5 are forecast to be the big memory companies mentioned and two expected to be the top foundries TSMC and UMC. The remaining top performing companies include Broadcom, Infineon, and TI.

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