The Sunday Herald  reported that Crighton (right) would have implied denial and complacency by government in failing to consider the need to build a flood barrage to protect oil, gas, power station and food distribution around the estuary.

Due to open on Thursday by  (left) climate change minister Stewart Stevenson, the Edinburgh conference is organised by the government funded Scottish Climate Change impacts Partership and as the Sunday Herald started to make inquiries, the conference organisers instructed Prof. Crighton to withdraw the comments and focus instead on practical insurance advice.

Professor Crighton's credentials involve 26 years in the insurance industry, advising governments and agencies on flood risks. He is an honorary professor at University College London and research fellow at the University of Dundee.

His opinion is not far out of line with that expressed by the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA)  working on "Development of a Wave Impact Assessment Tool for Scotland" which notes the map for Coastal Flood Vulnerability Index indicates five key regions with the Firths of Forth, Tay, Moray, Clyde and Solway.

"It is recommended that the pilot study is carried out for the Firth of Forth, with a particular focus on Edinburgh and the surrounding communities.

"Edinburgh is one of the communities with the greatest flood risks in terms of population. Developing a system for this region is justified by cost/benefit considerations," says the report.

"The Firth of Forth is also exposed to significant wave action, has an active wave buoy at the mouth of the firth and a Class A Tide gauge site at Leith. This tide gauge and wave buoy data will provide useful information for the calibration and validation of the  forecasting system that is developed."

Left: Mere 1.5 metre stormwave

Prof. Crichton says disaster would simple be a 5 metre storm surge, similar to that of 2007 together with a high tide.

"Image a situation in which the whole of Scotland suddenly has power cuts, no petrol or diesel supplies, no gas, and only limited food supplies. Image this continue for months," he is quoted saying.

The petrochemical complex at Grangemouth, handles 40% of UK oil supplies, could be flooded. A grocery distribution hub that supplies supermarkets across Scotland and northern England could also be knocked out. Longannet power station, near Kincardine, generates a quarter of Scotland’s electricity. And about 6000 people are also at risk from flooding of their homes.

Anyone looking idly back at Scotland's latest winter scenario and with what difficulty that was handled and how long to contain, may ponder this thought.

Flood maps published last week by SEPA  show that Grangemouth and Longannet are vulnerable to a flood expected to occur once every 200 years in the Forth. SEPA puts average cost of potential damage at £230m a year. Crichton says real costs could be much higher.

He is an advocate of building a 4km-long flood barrier across the Forth, upriver from Rosyth, which could carry both road and rail traffic. “Much cheaper than the proposed new bridge.”

Sunday Herald reports that according to the Scottish Government, a tidal barrage was rejected in 2007 because of concerns about the “considerable impact” on the environment and shipping.