Research tackles thin film solar PV development

Pointing out that the photovoltaic market has had many years of strong growth led largely by crystal silicon,the  report contends that thin-film solar technology has reached what economists call critical mass. According it predicts that thin-film solar including amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) will make up 28% of the solar market with $19.7bn in revenue in 2012.

Lux  also notes  thin-film silicon technologies from turn-key vendors will be ramping up production during the second half of 2008. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) module producers such as First Solar, and startups including Calyxo and Primestar will also have aggressive ramps and it  contends that CIGS module manufacturers are reaching the cusp of technology viability.

The growth rate for thin-film solar technology is anticipated to become more robust during the second half of 2008 and that clear winners and loser will emerge from the maelstrom of technological development with over 100 companies offering thin-film solutions, with mostly unproven and undifferentiated technology and high demand.

“CdTe module manufacturing costs are less than one third that of crystalline silicon, and the new amorphous silicon turn-key lines by Applied Materials and Oerlikon promise half the cost to start with further declines in the future,” said senior analyst Michael LoCascio. “These technologies will be the first choice for the burgeoning utility sector, squeezing out incumbent technology.

The Research and Markets report provides its analysis and forecast of the latest in thin-film photovoltaics (PV) technology. Just a few years ago, thin-film PV was little more than a niche in the photovoltaics business associated with low-margin products such as calculators. Thin-film PV materials other than amorphous silicon were barely out of the laboratory.

Today, thin-film PV is one of the most vibrant areas of PV technology and represents a growing share of solar panel production. Initially, the market was driven by the shortage of crystalline silicon, but now that this shortage is over, thin-film PV has its low-cost, low-weight and flexibility to recommend it.

And the thin-film PV market is moving well beyond amorphous silicon. In particular, CIGS seems set to offer all the virtues of thin-film PV with energy conversion efficiencies that aren't that much lower than conventional PV, while CdTe solar panels have already been flourishing.

This report offers a fresh assessment of where the thin-film PV market is headed over the next eight years as well as analysis of the strategies of leading firms active in this space. The materials platforms covered in this report include amorphous silicon, CIGS, CdTe, and GaAs as well as interesting materials and architectures for thin-film PV that are about to emerge from the laboratory

Each of these technologies is reviewed in terms of key performance characteristics (e.g., conversion efficiencies, costs per watt, etc.) and how these might improve in the future. The evolution of roll-to-roll, printing and other manufacturing processes that will significantly impact the cost of thin-film PV in the future are also examined.

As are the  market segments most likely to generate significant revenues for thin-film PV. Market segments examined in detail include building integrated systems, mobile and wearable computing, central power generation, disposable electronics, portable and emergency power (including battery chargers), together with military and aerospace applications.

Finally, the report contains detailed eight-year forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application and discusses how far this new type of photovoltaics can eat into traditional photovoltaics markets.


Sources: http://www.luxresearchinc.com/
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8aee38/thin_film_photovo